Abstract:

The case studies will focus on assessing the nature of climate variability and change in selected case study sites in two sub-regions of SSA during a recent historical period (within the past 25 years); community and household responses to climate variability and change, including especially changes in land use and land management; and implications of these responses for household food security, livelihoods and poverty reduction, carbon sequestration, and other outcomes of climate change adaptation and mitigation. The time period for the case studies may vary across sub-regions, depending on the nature of climate variability and change within the past 25 years. For example, if there has been a change in the climate trend during this period in a sub-region (e.g., decreasing rainfall in the 1980s and increasing rainfall subsequently), we will select the most recent period in which a consistent trend has been observed. Within sub-regions, different case study sites will be selected representing different climate conditions and trends (to the extent possible), as well as comparison sites in which climate variability and trends are similar but in which there are differences in land management responses and differences in other factors conditioning these responses, such as different policy environments and differences in access to markets, services or SLM programs. The purpose of this approach is to enable investigation of how such factors affect responses to climate variability and change and the implications for SLM and livelihoods. The approach to selecting the case study sites and the factors that will be investigated are discussed in detail in the methodology section. Case study sites will be selected in two sub-regions of SSA. These will be selected to represent areas of high climate variability and different major agro-ecological zones, farming systems and vulnerability to climate change. The proposed sub-regions include semi-arid and sub-humid zones of West and East Africa (Table 1). The West African Sudano-Sahelian region and East Africa are priority regions for studying climate change and SLM linkages because they are characterized by high levels of current climate variability and severe levels of land degradation. The risks of climate change differ between these regions. East Africa is strongly influenced by the El Nirio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and most Global Circulation Models (GCMs) predict that the climate in this region will become wetter, with increased risks of erosion and flooding. By contrast, the Sudano-Sahelian climate of West Africa is less predictable both inter-annually and in the long term (Traore et al., 2007), with some models predicting a wetter climate and some predicting a drier climate. In general, a more variable climate and a decreased growing period for crops (due to increased temperature) are expected. Investigating options for adapting to and mitigating climate change in these different climate environments of West and East Africa will therefore provide an interesting contrast, and will be representative of a wide range of contexts in SSA